"I think about this often" - Part 1
ideas I let act as my north star
Hi Friends. I hope you are all doing well.
From time to time, I come across intriguing ideas that pique my interest. However, I let only a few of them devour me (or maybe it’s the other way around). I let some of them guide me. These are the ones I think about often. In this post, I explore a couple of such ideas.
I enjoy reading bookbear express(Ava on Twitter). Apart from her articulation skills, I must admit that I was intrigued by her large number of “Paid subscribers”. To investigate this, I bought her subscription for a month (vibe-chad move) and went through 70-80% of her paid posts to understand her writing style, structure, and her main ideas. Honestly, most of her ideas were not groundbreaking. However, the way they are presented and the flow of the text supplemented with relatable anecdotes sets her work truly apart. The first idea in this post is from one of her’s posts The Organizing Principle.
Mental Resistance
Most things don't take that long, the resistance is the problem. This is the most important point. Only 2% of things actually take a long time. 98% can be completed quickly. I try to force myself to do every task as soon as I think of it. That makes a big difference. In my late teens and early 20s I procrastinated intensely, which led to this weird cycle of resistance/wasting time/guilt/more resistance. Now I just do it before I have too much time to think about how much I dread doing it.
If you're in your 20s or 30s, I am sure you can relate to it. I can imagine many of you delaying action like hitting the gym (I delayed it until I got some lower back pain lol), learning to drive, or bigger decisions like relocating to a new city. You might also postpone making investments (me), completing courses, or tackling everyday chores like bill payments and tidying up. Some of you might be delaying that conversation with your manager on a certain task, some might be procrastinating on a difficult project. And let's not forget to put off health check-ups, or set up that date with someone special. I won't add to your agony by listing more such situations.
I personally used to succumb to mental friction often. Now, I recite her quote in my head. Then, I jot down tasks on paper and aim to complete them as soon as possible, particularly for short to medium-effort/impact activities. If an activity is inevitable, the sequence doesn't matter. I don't need to find the right muhurat (auspicious timing) to do things. Just get it done. It doesn't have to be perfect either. Be proactive. I don't want the mental discomfort or the nagging thoughts of pending tasks lingering in my mind.
By the way, if you are wondering, the title is also inspired by Ava as she uses the phrase “I think about this often” often.
Are You Being Greedy Enough?
If you are still reading this long ass post, here’s the second idea. It was one normal day on Twitter where I posted a reply to prvkhvr like an NPC. And then what happened is history. (Ok, I am glorifying things now but who does not like some drama lol)
In the context of this thread, the OP mentioned that the smartest people they know are really good at predicting the 2nd and 3rd order effects of certain decisions. That means they're "far-sighted" and can anticipate the changes that happen due to the impact of their first choice (which is precisely the definition of 2nd order effect).
I've been pretty good at this kind of stuff too, and people often say that I have high attention to detail. But, honestly, I used to get confused and stuck in analysis paralysis a lot, whether I was making small or long-term choices. The funny thing is, most of these decisions weren't even risky or irreversible!
I replied that I generally find myself confused in figuring out the second and third order effects to which Sidu replied with this gem. I think about this often. It’s sort of incorporated in my life now. It’s precise and abstract at the same time. Rotate your context lens and you get a different view. Let’s uncover it.
Uncovering the tweet
Following a greedy algorithm means you pursue the next best option without spending a lot of time predicting two or more steps forward. You want to avoid contemplating on the pros, cons, 2nd and 3rd order effects. The only condition is: if the endeavor you want to embark on is risky, make sure to hedge. The dictionary definition of "hedge" is: "a way of protecting oneself against financial loss or other adverse circumstances." It's a form of protection against adverse circumstances, essentially serving as downside protection.
Any high-impact 2nd order effects are immediately visible. The long tail of low-probability events means there are many events that have low probability to occur. You do what you can do to hedge against these. Take relevant actions that are within your control and stop worrying about them. The very low probability events often manifest as uncertainty. You shouldn’t worry about them either. Keep your worries for the more direct ones.
For example, You want to start a startup. You should have some money saved up like 24 months of runaway so that you don’t end up on the street if your startup fails. If you have an earning wife or husband, then not that much of a problem lol. Ok so the finance is your hedge. Finances are the major problem. Once you have started, any other issues that might be there after you start, you should focus on making quick high impact decisions. For such low-probability situations, you can make backup plans, insurance, and other safety nets.
An alternative way to think about hedges is building a mental courage fund. These hedges essentially help you gather courage in the face of risk. They are freedom enablers.
recently wrote a thread on this.For medium to longer-term decisions. You may think of a hedge as building conviction apart from a couple of backup plans and finance hedge if required. Collect multiple opinions and let your mind marinate on them. Use your diffuse thinking. I know this is easier said than done. If the decision is rather reversible, then I suggest to try out. Life is a blend of holding and letting go. Sometimes, you can let go but you can hold on again. That’s a reversible decision. If it’s irreversible and the hedge is not enough, do not pursue.
Applying in Daily Life
From a daily life pov, most choices are not risky. Most of them are reversible or you can stop in between. The hedge parameter is low which means you should pay attention to being greedy. Act on what catches your attention. Use greedy algorithm based on vibes. This is the rite of passage to be a vibe chad. If not, then explore to refresh or generate options.
You are going to use a greedy algorithm on a bunch of choices right? That’s why I often mention being receptive enough to note down your mind’s internal prompts. Note down what you want to do and when you get the opportunity, catch onto one of them. Try acting more on whims.
Let’s say, you have to watch an anime or tv show but haven’t decided yet. You open Netflix and start browsing and then pass a couple of comments on Netflix’s smooth UI (that’s me). You scroll left and right but are still not able to decide what to watch. Then you just scroll some social media and go to sleep. If you follow the wisdom I have shined upon you, you would try out one two episodes of shows that mildly caught your eye instead of deciding “whats best for me”. This way you could try at least a few shows in the next 1-2 days (or earlier hopefully xD) until finding something that truly hooks you.
This approach is very scalable for anime because most anime episodes are under 24 minutes. The same goes for discovering music. (I like inserting the tv show watching problem/”consumption block” everywhere, will write a post soon). Bonus vibe chad point: You should also be able to identify your mood, if you even want to watch tv or listen to music or do something else.
Another example is college students tend to overthink is “What are the best resources to learn xyz” after spending a ginormous amount of time thinking “what’s best xyz”. The greedy algorithm says to try out that is generally good if not the best. As you pursue things, you start to get ideas and can better explore.
Using the last two examples of the TV show and college students, I want to highlight the faster exploration enabled by the greedy approach especially when there is lower risk. Even if you fail, you are most likely saving the time that you might have wasted in overanalyzing things.
I hope you get the riff. Start executing. Favor the next good over “what’s the best, I don’t know omg how will I decide”. The path will start unfolding. If the decision is reversible, the only loss is of time and energy and it’s not that devastating honestly. If something does not work, you start with next path that feels right.
That’s it for this post. Thanks for reading. I am open to feedback on Twitter. My handle is dejavucoder or substack notes. Before wrapping up, I need to appreciate one artist.
Sir, may i have the privilege to know how you decide on what topics to write